A demand cascade that locates where money originates, and an interactive scorecard that lets you slide your priors on the three diagnostic questions and watch the verdict on each thesis respond.
External customer revenue versus the recycled equity-to-compute loop. Indicative annualised flows for 2025 and 2026.
The recycled flow (coral, dashed) is not external revenue. Any underwriting that treats lab-side compute backlog as if it were external revenue should be discounted to the share that external customer revenue plausibly supports.
Slide your priors on the three diagnostic inputs. The cells and the verdict on each thesis respond.
Defaults reproduce the brief's central case. Each slider drives the four cells in its column and the verdict at the start of each row.
| Thesis | Q1. Enterprise revenue persistence | Q2. Circular-flow exposure | Q3. GPU residual value |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Hyperscaler captive
AWS, Azure, GCP, Meta
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Neocloud merchant
CoreWeave, Lambda, Nebius, Crusoe
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REIT / infrastructure fund
Digital Realty, Equinix, Brookfield, KKR
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Sovereign / strategic
Stargate, G42, HUMAIN, EU sovereign
|
Three favourable: deserves capital. Two favourable: capital, with structural protection. One favourable: caution; probably refuse. Zero favourable: refuse.